Schwabe, Gleissberg, Suess-de Vries: Towards a consistent model of planetary synchronization of solar cycles

F. Stefani¹ - A. Giesecke¹ - M. Seilmayer¹ - R. Stepanov² - T. Weier¹

¹ Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden -- Rossendorf, Bautzner Landstr. 400, 01328 Dresden, Germany
² Institute of Continuous Media Mechanics,1 Acad. Korolyov str., 614013 Perm, Russia

Abstract
Aiming at a consistent planetary synchronization model of both short-term and long-term solar cycles, we start with an analysis of Schove's historical data of cycle maxima. Their deviations (residuals) from the average cycle duration of 11.07 years show a high degree of regularity, comprising a dominant 200-year period (Suess-de Vries cycle), and a few periods around 100 years (Gleissberg cycle). Encouraged by their robustness, we support previous forecasts of an upcoming grand minimum in the 21st century. To explain the long-term cycles, we enhance our tidally synchronized solar dynamo model by a modulation of the field storage capacity of the tachocline with the orbital angular momentum of the Sun, which is dominated by the 19.86-year periodicity of the Jupiter--Saturn synodes. This modulation of the 22.14-year Hale cycle leads to a 193-year beat period of dynamo activity which is indeed close to the Suess-de Vries cycle. For stronger dynamo modulation, the model produces additional peaks at typical Gleissberg frequencies, which seem to be explainable by the non-linearities of the basic beat process, leading to a bi-modality of the Schwabe cycle. However, a complementary role of beat periods between the Schwabe cycle and the Jupiter--Uranus/Neptune synodic cycles cannot be completely excluded. Figs 4, Refs 44.